Y2038 refers to an issue that exists because of the way time is fundamentally represented on many computers.
Most software uses time in one way or another. Software might do something simple, like display the current time, or something more complex, like time a chemical process in a manufacturing plant. To get the current time, a software program typically makes a call to the ‘time()’ function in C/C++, or a similar function in other languages. The value returned by this function is a ‘time_t’ which on 32-bit systems is usually defined as a 32-bit signed integer representing the number of seconds since Jan 1, 1970 (this date is referred to as the ‘epoch’). The problem is that the range for the 32-bit signed integers is limited to +/- 2.147 Billion. Dates and times beyond early 2038 (exactly 3:14:07 AM GMT on January 19,2038), cannot be represented because the number of seconds since the epoch will exceed the largest positive value that can be held by a 32-bit signed integer. This could potentially cause problems with any non-Y2038-compliant systems and software that use time.
To help better understand the issue, a brief computer science lesson is useful. The binary representation of an integer is a series of bits, and each bit is either 0 or 1. For example, a three-bit integer can contain 2*2*2=8 unique bit patterns: 000, 001, 010, 011, 100, 101, 110, and 111. If the three bits represent an unsigned integer, the values represented by the bits are just 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, so the range is 0 to 7. If one is added to 7, the resulting value “wraps” back around to 0. In other words, 7 + 1 = 0.
In order to represent negative numbers, computers use something called “2’s complement”. This representation uses one bit for the sign of the number, so the magnitude of the range is halved. For the example above, the values of the 8 unique bit patterns in 2’s complement are: 0, 1, 2, 3, -4, -3, -2, and -1, in that order. The range in this case is -4 to 3. If one is added to 3 in 2’s complement math (with 3-bit signed integers), the resulting value is -4. In other words, 3 + 1 = -4. The result has ‘wrapped’ from the most positive value to the most negative value just by adding 1.
Extending this example to 32-bit integers, the range of 32-bit signed integers is -2,147,483,648 to 2,147,483,647. When a 32-bit signed integer represents a number of seconds, the amount of time that can be represented is approximately +/- 68 years, 19 days. Adding the maximum positive value to Jan 1, 1970 equates to 3:14:07 AM on Jan 19, 2038. After this time, the largest number of representable seconds will be exceeded, causing a 2’s complement wrap condition.
What will happen then? Depending on the specific implementation of a given system’s time function and the way the time value is used by software, the value returned may be interpretted as near Dec. 1901 (Jan 1, 1970 – 68 years, 19 days), or perhaps near the epoch (Jan 1, 1970). The software may then display the wrong time, write the wrong value to a database, crash, or fail in other subtle (or not so subtle) ways. Some forward looking software, such as mortgage calculation programs, may have already started encountering Y2038 issues.
Of course, 2038 is still a long way off, and most new desktop and server systems already have 64-bit hardware and operating systems. Y2038 does not affect 64-bit computers running 64-bit operating systems running properly written 64-bit applications. Y2038 also does not affect software which does not use time in any way. Note that using a 64-bit operating system (such as a 64-bit version of Windows XP, Linux, or Apple Mac with OSX), can still have Y2038 issues if applications are improperly written. Also note that most 64-bit systems can also run or emulate 32-bit software or even virtual machines with 32-bit operating systems which may not be Y2038-compliant.
While 64-bit systems are gaining market share, most computers and software that exist today are not Y2038-compliant and will likely have some problems related to Y2038 if they are still running in 2038. This includes all computers running 32-bit versions of Microsoft Windows, Linux, UNIX, and other 32-bit operating systems. More significantly, it also includes many billions of embedded systems which are increasingly used in modern electronic devices.
It should be mentioned that not all computer systems and software use the same epoch. For example, Apple Macs running early versions of OSX use a 32-bit unsigned integer for time and a starting date of Jan 1, 1904. These Macs are generally unaffected by Y2038, but they have a similar problem associated with Feb 6, 2040 at 6:28:15 AM. There are a surprising number of other time-related computer issues (see this link), although none are likely to be as major as Y2038.